Britain has nearly 47% more unemployed people competing for each vacancy than it did two years ago, a change that reveals a substantial loosening in the labour market even though the headline unemployment rate has recently stabilised.
Office for National Statistics figures show 2.5 unemployed people for every vacancy in May to July 2026, compared with 1.7 in the same period of 2024. The change has occurred on both sides of the labour market: unemployment has risen while the number of available vacancies has fallen.
The finding does not mean labour-market conditions deteriorated sharply this month. In fact, the ratio has been broadly stable recently. What the longer comparison shows is how different the balance between workers and available jobs has become since 2024.
There were an estimated 1.487 million unemployed people and 867,000 vacancies in May to July 2024. By May to July 2026, unemployment had risen to 1.778 million while vacancies had dropped to a revised 706,000.
That amounts to an increase of approximately 19.6% in unemployment alongside an 18.6% contraction in vacancies.
Together, those movements lifted the underlying number of unemployed people per vacancy by approximately 46.8%, which Finance Gazette rounds to nearly 47% to reflect the precision of the source data.
| Measure | May-Jul 2024 | May-Jul 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployed | 1.487m | 1.778m | +19.6% |
| Vacancies | 867,000 | 706,000 | −18.6% |
| ONS unemployed per vacancy | 1.7 | 2.5 | nearly +47% |
| Temporary workers unable to find permanent work | 327,000 | 416,000 | +27.2% |
| Share of temporary workers unable to find permanent work | 21.3% | 25.6% | +4.3pp |
Source: ONS. Finance Gazette calculations.
The newest vacancies estimate points in the same direction but should be kept separate from that matched comparison. Vacancies fell to 702,000 in June to August 2026, 36,000 below the same period a year earlier. Outside the coronavirus pandemic, the ONS says the last time the total was 702,000 or lower was in August to October 2014.
That does not amount to a fresh collapse in hiring. Vacancies have been comparatively flat since the beginning of 2026. More importantly, the unemployed-per-vacancy ratio itself has remained around 2.5 for several periods. The significance lies in the longer shift: the UK is now operating with considerably more unemployed labour relative to available openings than it was two years ago.
A less prominent ONS series points in a similar direction.
There were 416,000 temporary employees in May to July 2026 who said they were working temporarily because they could not find a permanent job. Two years earlier the figure was 327,000.
That is an increase of around 27.2%.
The share is arguably more revealing because it controls to some extent for the changing total number of temporary workers. In 2024, 21.3% of temporary employees gave inability to find permanent employment as the reason for their status. By 2026 the proportion had increased to 25.6%, a rise of 4.3 percentage points.
The figures should not be treated as a separate proof that employment conditions are weakening. They come from the Labour Force Survey, where granular series are subject to greater sampling uncertainty. But they are consistent with the broader evidence that workers are facing greater competition for the jobs available.
Administrative payroll data provide another important part of the picture.
The number of UK payrolled employees fell by 101,000 between July 2025 and July 2026. The early August estimate showed a decline of 145,000 compared with a year earlier and a fall of 26,000 from July to 30.2 million employees. The August figure remains provisional and may be revised.
For the May-to-July period, which is directly comparable with the latest Labour Force Survey figures, payroll employment was 84,000 lower than a year earlier and 39,000 lower than in the preceding non-overlapping three-month period.
That evidence matters because the various UK employment measures currently tell somewhat different stories.
The Labour Force Survey estimates that overall employment reached 34.478 million in May to July 2026, the highest recorded level in its comparable series. The employment rate, however, was 75.1%, slightly below its level a year earlier.
The apparent contradiction is partly methodological. The ONS says improvements to the LFS since 2024 have increased responses from employed people and mean recent employment movements reflect both changes in the economy and improvements in survey quality. It currently describes PAYE Real Time Information as its most reliable measure of employees.
The safest conclusion is therefore not that employment is collapsing. It is that several measures of labour demand and competition for jobs have weakened relative to two years ago, even while the LFS employment level remains high.
Wages provide another reason not to describe the latest release simply as evidence of a weak labour market.
Regular earnings excluding bonuses increased 3.5% annually in May to July 2026, while total earnings growth slowed to 3.9%. Real regular earnings were still 0.6% higher using CPIH inflation, with total real earnings up 0.9%.
There is also a substantial difference between sectors. Public-sector regular pay increased 6.3% annually, compared with 2.9% in the private sector, although the ONS cautions that the public-sector number is being affected by variations in the timing of pay awards.
That distinction is important because private-sector wage growth sits more naturally alongside the weaker payroll and vacancy figures.
Separate Bank of England business intelligence also describes a relatively loose hiring environment. Its September Agents' report said employment intentions remained broadly flat and recruitment difficulties were below normal, while reported 2026 pay settlements averaged around 3.6%.
September's ONS release therefore needs two different time frames to be understood properly.
In the short term, several headline indicators have stabilised. Unemployment remains at 4.9%, the unemployed-per-vacancy ratio has remained around 2.5, and vacancy declines have become comparatively modest.
Over two years, however, the change is much larger.
There are about 291,000 more unemployed people and 161,000 fewer vacancies than in the comparable period of 2024. The result is nearly 47% more unemployed people for each available vacancy.
That distinction prevents two opposite mistakes.
The data do not support describing the UK labour market as suddenly collapsing in September. But nor does an unchanged 4.9% unemployment rate mean that the balance between employers and workers resembles that of two years ago.
For people competing for vacancies, it clearly does not.
